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BOC: MNI BoC Preview - Oct'24: Touch and Go

BOC
Bank of CanadaGlobalCentral Bank NewsCanadaBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionNorth America
  • The BoC is mostly priced to ramp up its easing pace with a 50bp cut on Wednesday after three consecutive 25bp cuts having started cutting in June
  • We think it’s a closer call with another 25bp cut than the 45bp priced implies, but narrowly go with a 50bp cut this month with the market presenting an opportunity to step rates closer to higher estimates of neutral and trim elevated real rates
  • If the Governing Council does opt for a 50bp cut, we expect an attempt at downplaying odds of a second 50bp cut in December to avoid an overly large FI rally and CAD depreciation. 

Full Preview including exclusive analysis, summary of sell-side views and MNI Policy coverage here: https://mni.marketnews.com/3BTzNPh

 

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  • The BoC is mostly priced to ramp up its easing pace with a 50bp cut on Wednesday after three consecutive 25bp cuts having started cutting in June
  • We think it’s a closer call with another 25bp cut than the 45bp priced implies, but narrowly go with a 50bp cut this month with the market presenting an opportunity to step rates closer to higher estimates of neutral and trim elevated real rates
  • If the Governing Council does opt for a 50bp cut, we expect an attempt at downplaying odds of a second 50bp cut in December to avoid an overly large FI rally and CAD depreciation. 

Full Preview including exclusive analysis, summary of sell-side views and MNI Policy coverage here: https://mni.marketnews.com/3BTzNPh