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BOC Sell-Side Reviews

CANADA
Goldman Sachs: Still holding out for a January hike.
  • Though the Bank did not give a nod towards an early 2022 liftoff, GS does not think the "lack of a signal prevents a January hike, because the BoC does not tend to make large changes at non-MPR meetings, because elevated uncertainty favors flexibility, and because the labor market and inflation language was somewhat hawkish.
  • While it is a very close call between January and March/April, we still think January liftoff is slightly more likely.
ING: Despite signaling rate hikes in mid-2022, ING estimates the first hike to come from the Bank at the March 2 meeting with an another three through 2022.
  • The central bank is forecasting GDP growth of 4% in 2022 and 3.75% in 2023 on the back of strong consumer demand, business investment and a recovery in exports to the US. High prices are also going to be supportive for activity in the natural resource sector of the economy, which accounts for 10% of economic activity.
  • The Bank was generally upbeat about the recent release of 3Q real GDP growth (very close to the Bank’s October forecast) and the evolution of recent labor market indicators. The Bank balanced the tone by noting that the new Omicron COVID-19 variant was a renewed source of uncertainty around the global and Canadian growth outlooks and the Bank recognized the downside risks from the severe flooding in British Columbia.

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