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BOE: DMP Data Due at 9:30BST; Pill to speak on invite-only panel

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  • The BOE will release its monthly DMP (Decision Maker Panel) data at 9:30BST this morning. The data has taken on added importance as it was explicitly referenced in the August MPC Minutes where the five MPC members voting for a cut noted that "There had been a normalisation in inflation expectations, and forward-looking indicators such as the Decision Maker Panel survey pointed to waning wage and price pressures."
  • The DMP was also referenced multiple times in the August MPR - in reference to the proportion of firms finding it much harder to recruit new employees having fallen from 65% in 2022, the 1/3 years business expectations of the inflation rate, expectations of firms' own price inflation falling, expectations for wage growth falling amongst other metrics.
  • We like to focus most on the 3-month metric of expected wage growth, realised wage growth (to see how it tracks versus official metrics) as well as measures of firms' expected own price growth.
  • Separately Huw Pill is due to appear on an invite-only attendence panel at the Bruegel Annual Meetings today at 11:15BST. The panel is entitled "Quantitative tightening and financial stability" but we are unsure whether there will be any media coverage.
  • Note that Pill voted against the majority in August, favouring Bank Rate to be maintained at 5.25% so there is heighted focus on his view, although his vote may not be needed for further cuts, particularly if Haskel's replacement Alan Taylor is more dovish-leaning than his predecessor.
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  • The BOE will release its monthly DMP (Decision Maker Panel) data at 9:30BST this morning. The data has taken on added importance as it was explicitly referenced in the August MPC Minutes where the five MPC members voting for a cut noted that "There had been a normalisation in inflation expectations, and forward-looking indicators such as the Decision Maker Panel survey pointed to waning wage and price pressures."
  • The DMP was also referenced multiple times in the August MPR - in reference to the proportion of firms finding it much harder to recruit new employees having fallen from 65% in 2022, the 1/3 years business expectations of the inflation rate, expectations of firms' own price inflation falling, expectations for wage growth falling amongst other metrics.
  • We like to focus most on the 3-month metric of expected wage growth, realised wage growth (to see how it tracks versus official metrics) as well as measures of firms' expected own price growth.
  • Separately Huw Pill is due to appear on an invite-only attendence panel at the Bruegel Annual Meetings today at 11:15BST. The panel is entitled "Quantitative tightening and financial stability" but we are unsure whether there will be any media coverage.
  • Note that Pill voted against the majority in August, favouring Bank Rate to be maintained at 5.25% so there is heighted focus on his view, although his vote may not be needed for further cuts, particularly if Haskel's replacement Alan Taylor is more dovish-leaning than his predecessor.