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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
OIS-implied BoE/ECB rate cuts continued to pull back Wednesday, continuing the early 2024 theme.
- There are now 138bp of ECB cuts priced for 2024 (3bp less than at Tuesday's close), with 119bp priced for the BoE (a reduction of 5bp in expected cuts on the day).
- Typically hawkish-leaning comments by the ECB's Schnabel helped short-term rate cut expectations retreat in the afternoon. There is just 36% implied probability associated with a first ECB cut in March, vs around 44% Tuesday, with April fully priced, and consecutive 25bp hikes seen at the ensuing 3 meetings (and nearly a 4th).
- Prospects of a first BoE cut by the May MPC continue to fade, now at 76% implied, vs 80% at Tuesday's close - and over 100% at the start of the year. A first reduction in June is fully priced, with the first 50bp of cuts seen through the August MPC, three 25bp reductions through September, and four 25bp cuts through November.
Source: MNI / BBG OIS Data
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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