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BoE Hike Pricing Fade Continues, ECB Ticks Higher

STIR

The spread between ECB and BoE terminal rates tightened for the 2nd consecutive session, with the former ticking higher and the latter continuing to drift lower to 2 month lows.

  • ECB terminal depo Rate pricing +0.9bp to 3.92% (17bp of further hikes left in the cycle) ECB hike pricing ticked a little higher for the 2nd consecutive session, but remains closely anchored to the close-to-but-just-below 4% peak area (has closed between 3.89 and 3.92% since Jul 28th). 10bp is priced for September's decision, with 15bp through the next two meetings cumulatively.
  • BoE terminal Bank Rate pricing -2.9bp to 5.72% (47bp of further hikes left in the cycle to Feb 2024). BoE hike pricing rose from session lows but overall continues to tick lower (today for the 6th session in 7), with the current terminal at the lowest level since Jun 12. A 20bp hike is priced for September (ie 80% prob of a 25bp raise), down a couple of bp since the August MPC; 34bp is cumulatively priced through the next two meetings.



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