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BoK To Sell MSB's, New Issuance From Sept


IRZ1 Lifted


(U1) Fades Off 2021 Highs

BOE looks for steep Q3 bounceback


Looking at the BOE forecasts there's still quite a steep bounceback in Q3. It looks as though the BOE have gone for a fairly optimistic swoosh or Nike tick shaped recovery. The question is with CPI coming back to close to target at the end of the forecast horizon, how big a miss do we need to the data to get more QE? The majority of analysts were still looking for more QE to be announced in November before this meeting. Many would probably argue an 18% Q3 bounceback looks too optimistic so may well stick with their QE forecasts.

Quarter Forecast
Q2-2020 -21%
Q3-2020 18%
Q4-2020 3.5%
Q1-2021 1.7%
Q2-2021 1.7%
Q3-2021 1.4%
Q4-2021 1.2%
Q1-2022 0.6%
Q2-2022 0.6%
Q3-2022 0.5%
Q1-2023 0.5%
Q2-2023 0.4%
Q3-2023 0.4%