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BOE: MPC speakers this week and more thoughts on Mann

BOE
Bank of EnglandCentral Bank NewsCEEMEABulletUKGlobalFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionMarkets
  • Following last week’s BOE meeting (see the MNI BOE Review including sellside roundup here) last week we heard from Catherine Mann.
  • In some ways we think that her comments were more meaningful than the wider meeting as she sounded to have softened her hawkish stance further. It would still not be our base case, but we now think there is an outside chance that she votes for a 25bp cut at the November MPC meeting (further thoughts on that in the BOE Review document too).
  • This week we will hear from the MPC’s other external hawk (recall Haskel has left the committee): Megan Greene is due to speak on Wednesday on consumption at the Newcastle Chamber of Commerce.
  • Although neither Greene nor Mann’s votes are likely needed for a November cut, if there is agreement from the hawks that cuts are appropriate, it shows a wider softening of the MPC’s tone.
  • Indeed, given Mann’s comments last week and her previous rhetoric, it might be that she is more likely to favour sequential cuts at some point in this cycle ahead of other members who are currently considered to be more dovish.
  • Greene is due to speak again next week, while next week will see Chief Economist Pill (who also hawkishly dissented) in August, speak at a CBI event.
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  • Following last week’s BOE meeting (see the MNI BOE Review including sellside roundup here) last week we heard from Catherine Mann.
  • In some ways we think that her comments were more meaningful than the wider meeting as she sounded to have softened her hawkish stance further. It would still not be our base case, but we now think there is an outside chance that she votes for a 25bp cut at the November MPC meeting (further thoughts on that in the BOE Review document too).
  • This week we will hear from the MPC’s other external hawk (recall Haskel has left the committee): Megan Greene is due to speak on Wednesday on consumption at the Newcastle Chamber of Commerce.
  • Although neither Greene nor Mann’s votes are likely needed for a November cut, if there is agreement from the hawks that cuts are appropriate, it shows a wider softening of the MPC’s tone.
  • Indeed, given Mann’s comments last week and her previous rhetoric, it might be that she is more likely to favour sequential cuts at some point in this cycle ahead of other members who are currently considered to be more dovish.
  • Greene is due to speak again next week, while next week will see Chief Economist Pill (who also hawkishly dissented) in August, speak at a CBI event.