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BoE Peak Bank Rate Nearing 6.50%, ECB Still Can't Pierce 4.00%

STIR

BoE hike pricing hit fresh highs Wednesday, while the ECB's was basically unchanged.

  • BoE terminal Bank Rate pricing +10.6bp to 6.41% (141bp of further hikes left in the cycle to Mar 2024) Despite finishing ~1.5bp off the session highs, the daily rise in BoE terminal rates was the biggest since the June MPC delivered a surprise 50bp hike, and brought a fresh high for the cycle, exceeding the 2022 mini-budget highs.
  • The path includes 43bp implied for August's MPC (still down a little from 46bp at the end of last week) and a cumulative 86bp through the September meeting.
  • ECB terminal depo Rate pricing -0.6bp to 4% (51bp of further hikes left in the cycle to Dec 2023). Depo rate pricing remained capped at the 4.00% level which has seemingly been the ceiling since late April. 23bp is priced for the July meeting, with 39bp cumulative through September.


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