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BoE Peak Pricing Back Above 6%

STIR
Pricing for the September BoE decision has eclipsed 30bp (20% probability of a 50bp hike vs 25bp), up 7bp on the day following the stronger-than-expected UK wage data. A full 50bp cumulative is priced through the upcoming two meetings.
  • Terminal pricing is now up 12bp on the day, pointing to a total 75bp of hikes left in this cycle to a a peak Bank Rate of 6.00% (in Mar 2024) for the first time since Jul 18th. That's up 28bp since last Thursday's close.
  • Meanwhile, that's pulling up ECB peak pricing which is set to rise for the 6th straight session, up 3bp to 3.97% (Dec 2023) - highest since Jul 26, with a September 25bp hike basically a 50% proposition.

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