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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
BoE peak hike pricing reversed all of Thursday's drop on Friday but remained meaningfully lower for the week. ECB pricing meanwhile continued to centre on the 4% mark with a modest uptick to end the week.
- BoE terminal Bank Rate pricing +8.7bp to 6.26% (126bp of further hikes left in the cycle to Mar 2024) - An early drop in peak pricing (to 6.15% Bank Rate) in the morning reversed fully in the afternoon, accelerating after stronger than expected US consumer inflation expectations data. Even so, that left peak pricing 18bp lower for the week, thanks largely to soft US CPI data Wednesday. August hike pricing picked up 1bp to 43bp ahead of next week's pivotal UK CPI reading.
- ECB terminal depo Rate pricing +3.2bp to 4.01% (51bp of further hikes left in the cycle to Dec 2023). The rise in ECB peak pricing Friday basically mirrored that of the Fed, with few catalysts of note in Friday's session. That left peak pricing unchanged on the week, having dropped to 3.96% at one point. With little in the way of impactful event or data risk next week to sway the ECB's Jul 27 decision away from a 25bp hike (90+% priced), the most meaningful catalyst is likely to be UK CPI.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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