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BOE: Pill a little less hawkish - but a vote for a Nov cut isn't certain here

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Overall Pill a little less hawkish than previous - but still not even certain to be voting for a November cut here, let alone sequential cuts.

  • Remember his vote isn't necessarily needed for another cut - but today's comments seem to suggest his view has moved even further from Bailey.
  • At first glance he also now appears to be more hawkish than Greene (but possibly Mann is still most hawkish).
  • "There is ample reason for caution in assessing the dissipation of inflation persistence. While further cuts in Bank Rate remain in prospect should the economic and inflation outlook evolve broadly as expected, it will be important to guard against the risk of cutting rates either too far or too fast. For me, the need for such caution points to a gradual withdrawal of monetary policy restriction"
  • "As we approach the next MPC meeting in November, we will have more data and new forecasts. I will have to update my assessment of the character, likelihood and relevance of the cases and their implications for policy votes and decisions. Given that the cases described in September continue to focus on the dissipation of the large pandemic and invasion shocks, we also need to be alert to new disturbances to the global and UK economies that may require a more substantial revision to our approach."

Full link: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/speech/2024/october/cross-checking.pdf

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Overall Pill a little less hawkish than previous - but still not even certain to be voting for a November cut here, let alone sequential cuts.

  • Remember his vote isn't necessarily needed for another cut - but today's comments seem to suggest his view has moved even further from Bailey.
  • At first glance he also now appears to be more hawkish than Greene (but possibly Mann is still most hawkish).
  • "There is ample reason for caution in assessing the dissipation of inflation persistence. While further cuts in Bank Rate remain in prospect should the economic and inflation outlook evolve broadly as expected, it will be important to guard against the risk of cutting rates either too far or too fast. For me, the need for such caution points to a gradual withdrawal of monetary policy restriction"
  • "As we approach the next MPC meeting in November, we will have more data and new forecasts. I will have to update my assessment of the character, likelihood and relevance of the cases and their implications for policy votes and decisions. Given that the cases described in September continue to focus on the dissipation of the large pandemic and invasion shocks, we also need to be alert to new disturbances to the global and UK economies that may require a more substantial revision to our approach."

Full link: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/speech/2024/october/cross-checking.pdf