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BofA: CPI Core Services To Cool Off After A Hot Winter

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • BofA expects a softer inflation profile in March’s CPI report, with core moderating to 0.24% M/M unrounded, and headline 0.25% unrounded.
  • The key driver to March’s disinflation vs February is a –0.05% M/M decline in core goods prices, in turn driven by a drop in used/new car prices.
  • They also look for core services to slow on the back of a moderation in non-housing services, with supercore at 0.2% M/M after 0.5% in February, amid declines in travel-related categories such as airfares and lodging.
  • “A report in line with our expectations would leave us more confident with our call for the Fed to start its cutting cycle in June... a much firmer report is the key risk to our policy outlook. If Core CPI tops our expectations and the details are consistent with a 0.3% m/m print for core PCE, then the likelihood of a cut in June would diminish significantly.”
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