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BofA now look for December hike

BOE
  • BofA have shifted their BoE rate hike expectation and now look for the first hike of 15bp in December 2021 (from February 2022 previously).
  • They have also shifted forward the next 25bp hike to February 2022 (from February 2023 previously).
  • "We choose a December hike because the BoE will have October labour market data at that point, and Saunders noted December pricing. We assume they also in December signal they plan to hike again, to 0.5%, at the February meeting if the post-Furlough labour market data remain strong enough."
  • BofA notes: "The BoE should look through transitory inflation but central bank appears concerned about inflation credibility... Early hikes are 'stitch in time'. Hike early to add credibility, avoiding more hikes later. We see the BoE pausing at 0.5%."
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