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BofA writes that "the winds of transitory inflation became crossed" in August:
- Reopening categories saw "negative payback" (subtracting 26bp from core M/M), but "on the other hand, there were signs of continued shortage related pressures as price gains were seen across commodity items" including new cars, household furnishings, recreation commodities among others (adding 16bp to core).
- That said, BofA saw "encouraging news from a persistent inflation perspective" with shelter ex-hotels prices and medical care services holding in, and "broad price pressures across other major services, with labor constraints and resilient wages potentially playing a role."
- For Aug core PCE, BofA expects +0.34% M/M unrounded, 3.65% Y/Y.