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BOK VIEW: BofAML continue to "expect the......>
KOREA: BOK VIEW: BofAML continue to "expect the BoK to keep the policy rate on
hold for the rest of the year as (1) policy focus seems skewed to the fiscal
side (larger government spending and potential supplementary budget in 2H19);
(2) slowing domestic economy at an expected pace; (3) muted inflation due to
supply side factors; and (4) sluggish labor market, which could call for a
supplementary budget. The BoK appears reluctant to consider any rate change
near-term. Rather, it is expected to take a side-step and watch how the fiscal
cushion mitigates risks against growth on the back of strong tax receipt from
2018. If the budget frontloading in 1H19 (61% of the W469.6tn budget) fails to
provide a robust buffer for consumption by 2Q19, we see a high possibility of
discussions on supplementary budget starting in 3Q19 and execution in 4Q19. Only
after exhausting the fiscal policy tool, will the BoK start discussing monetary
easing, in our view. We think starting such discussion will come no sooner than
4Q19 or early-2020."
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