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Bond Sale, Fed Barkin Lends Support to Tsys, Waiting for PPI

US TSY FUTURES
  • Treasury futures continue to pare losses, dovish comments from Richmond Fed Barkin: needs convincing evidence inflation is stabilizing, but is open to cutting "once inflation on track to 2%", contributing to modest post-auction support as short sets reversed.
  • Curves near two-month highs: 2s10s taps -27.968, last seen November 7. Meanwhile, 10Y yield holding above 4% at 4.0225 (-.0058).
  • Initial technical resistance for Mar'24 10Y futures up above at 112-19 (High Jan 4); support holds at 111-06+ (Low Jan 05).
  • FI market bounce seems rather tepid, however, as markets await tomorrow morning's PPI data before committing. MN Fed President Kashkari speaks about economic conditions tomorrow as well (1000ET).
  • Market's projected rate cut chances remain largely static through the first half of 2024, June 12 FOMC now fully pricing in the first 25bp cut.
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