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BRAZIL: BCB Focus Survey, August Economic Activity, Galipolo Speaking

BRAZIL
  • The Brazilian real remained on the back foot on Friday, with USDBRL closing up 0.49% at 5.611, above initial resistance at 5.5971, the Sep 23 high. Above here, next resistance is at 5.6917, the Aug 30 high and a bull trigger. BBVA says that although the BRL and overall Brazilian market dynamics have not been the most encouraging lately, some of the movement seems excessive and they have entered a tactical long BRL. They note that the BCB has recently been more reactive to levels above USDBRL 5.65, and generally they have seen demand reappear into USDBRL 5.80.
  • Today, the BCB will publish its weekly Focus survey at 1225BST(0725ET), which will be followed by August economic activity data at 1300BST(0800ET). Analysts expect activity to edge up by 0.1% m/m in August, following a 0.4% m/m decline in July. In annual terms, economic growth is expected to moderate to 2.9% y/y, from 5.3%.
    • Aug. Economic Activity YoY, est. 2.90%, prior 5.30%
    • Aug. Economic Activity MoM, est. 0.10%, prior -0.40%
  • Meanwhile, Finance Minister Haddad is scheduled to give a lecture at the Itaú BBA Macro Vision event at 1300BST(0800ET), followed by BCB monetary policy director Gabriel Galipolo at 1345BST(0845ET).
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  • The Brazilian real remained on the back foot on Friday, with USDBRL closing up 0.49% at 5.611, above initial resistance at 5.5971, the Sep 23 high. Above here, next resistance is at 5.6917, the Aug 30 high and a bull trigger. BBVA says that although the BRL and overall Brazilian market dynamics have not been the most encouraging lately, some of the movement seems excessive and they have entered a tactical long BRL. They note that the BCB has recently been more reactive to levels above USDBRL 5.65, and generally they have seen demand reappear into USDBRL 5.80.
  • Today, the BCB will publish its weekly Focus survey at 1225BST(0725ET), which will be followed by August economic activity data at 1300BST(0800ET). Analysts expect activity to edge up by 0.1% m/m in August, following a 0.4% m/m decline in July. In annual terms, economic growth is expected to moderate to 2.9% y/y, from 5.3%.
    • Aug. Economic Activity YoY, est. 2.90%, prior 5.30%
    • Aug. Economic Activity MoM, est. 0.10%, prior -0.40%
  • Meanwhile, Finance Minister Haddad is scheduled to give a lecture at the Itaú BBA Macro Vision event at 1300BST(0800ET), followed by BCB monetary policy director Gabriel Galipolo at 1345BST(0845ET).