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BRAZIL: BCB Focus Survey Due At 1225BST

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  • In its latest bimonthly fiscal report on Friday, the government reported a drop in frozen expenditures from BRL15.0bn in July to BRL13.3bn in September, helped by higher-than-expected revenues. Amidst higher-than-expected mandatory expenditures, the Treasury now estimates the effective primary deficit to be at BRL68.8bn in 2024, as compared to BRL 61.4bn previously. Given on-going fiscal concerns, USDBRL closed 1.57% higher at 5.5107, narrowing the gap to resistance at 5.6917, the Aug 30 high. Key support is at 5.3768, the Aug 19 low.
  • The BCB will publish its weekly Focus survey on Monday, where analysts’ inflation forecasts will remain of particular interest (1225BST/0725ET). Last week, analysts raised their 2024 CPI forecast to 4.35%, while the end-2025 estimate edged up to 3.95%. The 2025 Selic rate forecast was also increased by 25bp to 11.25%. Meanwhile, August formal job creation data may also be published later today.
  • BCB Governor Campos Neto has meetings with various European Commission officials in Sao Paulo from 1500BST(1000ET), while Finance Minister Haddad is in New York for meetings. Meanwhile, President Lula said over the weekend that he would push for global AI rules during Brazil’s continued presidency of the G-20 this year.
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  • In its latest bimonthly fiscal report on Friday, the government reported a drop in frozen expenditures from BRL15.0bn in July to BRL13.3bn in September, helped by higher-than-expected revenues. Amidst higher-than-expected mandatory expenditures, the Treasury now estimates the effective primary deficit to be at BRL68.8bn in 2024, as compared to BRL 61.4bn previously. Given on-going fiscal concerns, USDBRL closed 1.57% higher at 5.5107, narrowing the gap to resistance at 5.6917, the Aug 30 high. Key support is at 5.3768, the Aug 19 low.
  • The BCB will publish its weekly Focus survey on Monday, where analysts’ inflation forecasts will remain of particular interest (1225BST/0725ET). Last week, analysts raised their 2024 CPI forecast to 4.35%, while the end-2025 estimate edged up to 3.95%. The 2025 Selic rate forecast was also increased by 25bp to 11.25%. Meanwhile, August formal job creation data may also be published later today.
  • BCB Governor Campos Neto has meetings with various European Commission officials in Sao Paulo from 1500BST(1000ET), while Finance Minister Haddad is in New York for meetings. Meanwhile, President Lula said over the weekend that he would push for global AI rules during Brazil’s continued presidency of the G-20 this year.