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Brazil Retail Sales, Peru Pension Vote and Central Bank Decision

LATAM
  • In LatAm, Brazil retail sales and Mexico industrial & manufacturing production data headline the calendar, both due for release at 1300BST/0800ET. After the close, Peru’s central bank will likely extend a pause in its easing cycle, although analysts expect this to be a close call. Elsewhere, Peru’s congress will vote on a private pension withdrawal bill and Argentina President Javier Milei meets with Inter-American Development Bank President.
  • Core/semi-core EGBs are off lows but remain weaker alongside core FI peers this morning, as rate cut expectations across the Fed/BoE/ECB have pulled back. The greenback has had a subdued session, however, is consolidating the entirety of the post-CPI advance.
  • The ECB rate decision comes alongside the US crossover today, with markets on watch for any signal that the ECB will proceed with a first rate cut of the cycle at the June meeting. Focus in the US turns to the weekly US jobless claims data and the March PPI release - particularly in light of yesterday's hotter-than-expected CPI release.

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