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BRAZIL: Sharp Move Higher for USDBRL, Close to Week’s High

BRAZIL
  • Despite a favourable session for the Brazilian Real on Tuesday and a benign open this morning, USDBRL has reversed sharply higher in recent trade, rallying around 1% off the lows to print above 5.66.
  • Price action narrows the gap to the week’s highest levels and is underpinned by lingering domestic fiscal pressures and bullish technical conditions remaining intact.
  • Attention is on key resistance and the bull trigger at 5.7008, the Jul 2 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 5.7134, the 1.382 projection of the Dec 27 ‘23 - Apr 16 - May 3 price swing. The 1.50 projection is at 5.7705. On the downside, initial support moves up to 5.5598, the 20-day EMA.
  • The volatility comes ahead of central bank decisions from both the Fed and BCB later today. Our preview for the Copom meeting is here: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/65492/MNI%20BCB%20Preview%20-%20July%202024.pdf

 

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