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BRAZIL: USDBRL Extends Decline to 1.5%, Nears Technical Support

BRAZIL
  • USDBRL is currently trading at session lows below 5.40 as markets continue to weigh the strong price action for major equity benchmarks and the potential for BCB rate hikes later this year. The pair has narrowed the gap to the first notable technical support at 5.3709, the Jul 11 low. Firmer iron ore prices appear to be offsetting the impact of 2% declines for WTI crude futures on the Brazilian Real on Monday.
  • The Focus survey’s moderate improvement for longer-term inflation expectations has been offset by the small increase seen for 2024 year-end forecasts and the 2025 Selic rate estimate being raised by 25bps. Alongside this survey, XP Investments have joined Legacy Capital in forecasting rate hikes in every remaining meeting this year, while JP Morgan said their conviction over stables rates in 2024 has lessened.
  • The lack of domestic data this week will place the focus on any further BCB rhetoric or analyst adjustments to selic rate forecasts and broader global developments. BCB’s Galipolo has left all options on the table, reiterating the Copom’s dependence on the incoming data.
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