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Brent Curve Backwardation Strengthens on Supply Uncertainty

OIL

Brent crude near term spreads are gaining ground up from lows on Sep 7

  • The Brent 2-3 and 1-6 spreads are the strongest since Aug 30.
  • Supply risks from countries such as Russia, Kazakhstan and Libya combined with setbacks in the Iran nuclear deal discussions, further possible OPEC production cuts and uncertainty over future US SPR releases have all combined to support time spreads.
    • Brent NOV 22 up 0.3% at 91.14$/bbl
    • WTI OCT 22 up 0.1% at 85.22$/bbl
    • Brent NOV 22-DEC 22 unchanged at 1.23$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 22-DEC 23 up 0.3$/bbl at 9.53$/bbl
    • WTI OCT 22-NOV 22 down -0.04$/bbl at 0.41$/bbl
    • WTI DEC 22-DEC 23 up 0.19$/bbl at 8.53$/bbl
  • The chart below shows the current Brent forward curve compared to last week and a month ago.

Source: Bloomberg

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