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Brent Forecast for 2024 Revised Down to 77.5$/bbl: Morgan Stanley

OIL

Morgan Stanley has cut the forecast for Brent crude prices in 2024 by nearly 9% to around $77.5/bbl with prices falling to the mid to low $70s during 2025.

  • Surging non-OPEC supplies, led by US shale drillers, will be enough to satisfy slower global oil demand growth of 1.2mb/d this year as the post-covid recovery loses steam.
  • “Looking ahead, we expect a relatively precarious balance in 2024,” said a report on Jan 3. “Despite low investment in production capacity in recent years, the growth in non-OPEC supply is nevertheless set to remain strong.”
  • Call-on-OPEC declines, putting downward pressure on OPEC market share and upward pressure on spare capacity but OPEC+ cohesion is likely to remain strong.
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