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Bull Flattening Sees TY Test Resistance

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys trade firmly bull flatter today against a risk-off backdrop stemming from Moody's cutting ratings on the US banking sector, some soft Chinese data, an Italian windfall tax on banking sector profits and most recently UPS missing EPS expectations and cutting its full-year revenue outlook. Still stubborn price pressures amid an improving activity outlook for NFIB small businesses helped steady gains but no more than that.
  • 2YY -3.1bp at 4.730%, 5YY -7.4bp at 4.092%, 10YY -9.3bp at 3.996% and 30YY -10.2bp at 4.168%.
  • TYU3 trades 14 ticks higher at 111-18, where it finds resistance at the 20-day EMA of 111-18+ in a continued push off support at yesterday’s low of 110-23. A more concerted climb could signal scope for a stronger recovery to the 50-day EMA at 112-15+. Volumes are strong at 390k after a large increase in European hours.
  • Fedspeak: Harker (0815ET), Barkin (0830ET)
  • Data: Trade Balance Jun (0830ET), Wholesale trade sales/inventories Jun/Jun final (1000ET)
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $42B 3Y Note auction (91282CHU8) – 1300ET
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $55B 42D CMB, $40B 52W bill auctions – 1130ET
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