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Bullard Dissent: 300bp 2022 Hikes, QT Now Appropriate


In an explanation of his dissent to March's FOMC decision (in favor of a 50bp hike rather than 25bp), St Louis Fed Pres Bullard writes that he was in favor of 300bp of total Fed funds increases in 2022.

  • That puts to rest who had the highest 2022 "dot" in the hiking plot of the Summary of Economic Projections and not a huge surprise given he's considered the biggest current "hawk" on the Committee, but he's been at the vanguard of the FOMC's hawkish shift so his comments are worthy of consideration.
  • In addition to the 50bp dissent (and not mentioned in the Statement), he writes that "implementing a plan for reducing the size of the Fed’s balance sheet" would have been appropriate at the meeting.
  • He says the FOMC is missing its target "by 410 basis points on the headline measure and 320 basis points on the core measure", placing a "particularly heavy burden" on many Americans.
  • With inflation rising, real rates are falling and the Fed's policy "has been unwittingly easing further". "The Committee will have to move quickly to address this situation or risk losing credibility on its inflation target."

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