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By-Election Could Prove First Electoral Test For PM Truss

UK

A parliamentary by-election is likely to take place in the West Lancashire constituency of opposition centre-left Labour MP Rosie Cooper, who has announced her intention to take up a new role in the NHS. A by-election here is likely to be the first electoral test for the governing centre-right Conservative Party under its new leader, PM Liz Truss. While expectations for the Conservatives will be low, a worse-than-anticipated performance could spell early trouble for the new head of gov't.

  • Cooper has held the seat since 2005. The seat itself, which sits to the north of the city of Liverpool, has been Labour since 1992, and voted Remain in the 2016 Brexit referendum by a 10% margin.
  • In the 2019 general election, Cooper retained the seat with a reduced majority of 8,336. The seat does not sit as part of the area known as the 'red wall' of long-standing Labour seats won by then-PM Boris Johnson's centre-right Conservatives in 2019.
  • The New Statesman and Britain Predicts has Labour winning the seat with over 60% of the vote if an election were held today according to its projections.
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