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CAD Sees Swing To Outperformance With Important Releases Ahead

CANADA
  • USDCAD at 1.37 is off an earlier low of 1.3681 but is holding the day’s decline despite decent progress in the BoC’s core inflation three-month metric.
  • The day’s lift in the USD index has helped buoy CAD, switching from notable underperformance both yesterday and before today’s data to instead sit near the top of the pack.
  • It earlier stopped just shy of support at 1.3678 (50-day EMA) after which sits 1.3635 (trendline drawn from Jul 14 low).
  • Still to come today is the government’s Fall Economic Statement (preview here), likely more of note for those with a FI rather than FX focus, but one to watch nevertheless.
  • It’s followed by tomorrow’s heavy US data docket plus BoC’s Macklem speaking on “The cost of high inflation” with text at 1130ET.
  • Large option expiry had some sway last week. It picks up slightly tomorrow with $580m at 1.3650 and $446 at 1.3750, but it’s unlikely to bias price action too much.

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