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Bookmakers are seeing the prospect of California Governor Gavin Newsom (D-CA) taking the 2024 Democrat presidential nomination rise slightly as questions continue to persist over President Biden's age and the suitability of Vice President Kamala Harris to take over the presidency should Biden be incapacitated while in office.
- According to data from Smarkets, Newsom's implied probability of taking the nomination has increased from around 3% to around 13% over the past month.
- This week Newsom has been on a tour of Republican controlled states, ostensibly throwing his support behind President Biden, but also burnishing his own credentials as a presidential candidate.
- Politico notes that Newsom's tour is likely a win-win for both Biden and Newsom, adding that the White House "could use more and younger voices touting Biden’s record, particularly around the economy," particularly Newsom's "more aggressive brand of politics."
- Newsom has repeatedly ruled himself out of a primary contest against Biden and he remains an outsider, but if Biden's approval rating fails to strengthen over the coming months there may be louder voices calling for an alternative Democrat nominee.
Figure 1: 2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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