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Can Equities Reach New Highs Without JPY 'Help'?

JAPAN
  • In Japan, we have seen that the dynamics of the exchange rate (JPY) has had a significant impact on equities in the past 15 years; a cheaper currency has usually been associated with higher equities (and vise versa, 'Pavlovian' relationship).
  • However, in the past year, while Japanese equities have experienced a significant recovery their March 2020 lows, the Yen has remained 'strong' against major crosses as investors have been constantly looking for 'hedges' due to rising uncertainty.
  • As liquidity has been one of the major forces behind equities' strength, DM central banks' tapering poses a threat to risky assets.
  • The chart below shows the significant divergence between USDJPY and the Nikkei 225 index in the past year.
  • Can the divergence persists if DM starts tapering bond purchases?

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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