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Can-US 10Y Yield Differential Highest Since October

CANADA
  • GoCs trade 6-14.5bp cheaper for a large bear flattening on the day.
  • Softer than expected input price inflation hasn’t stopped 2s (+14.5bps) from keeping pace with Treasuries, with the latter’s losses spurred on by surprisingly strong retail sales.
  • GoCs see sizeable underperformance further out the curve however, with 10s +9bps vs +5bps for Tsys. It sees the Can-US differential narrow 4bps to -66bps, its highest since mid-October.
  • The moves sees the long-end catch-up with a narrowing in front end differentials into the new year.
  • Within Canadian FI, CANHOU 5s and 10s have held a modest tightening in spreads to GoCs, by circa 1bp to 22bp and 40bp respectively, following yesterday’s announcement on the government’s participation in all fixed-rate CMB syndications proposed for 2024.

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