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CANADA: Analysts Still On Either Side Of 25bp or 50bp Cut Calls

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25bp cut

  • BMO: “Today's surprisingly sturdy employment picture sends a strong vote for a more modest 25 bp rate cut by the BoC at this month's decision, versus the recent growing calls for a 50 bp response. Given the inherent volatility of the Labour Force Survey, this result is not going to seal the deal by itself, but one of the strongest arguments in favour a bigger rate move was the previously steady softening in the job market.”
  • CIBC: “Although the September employment report showed an improvement in hiring, that followed a lull in the summer months, and the drop in participation is an indication that workers are becoming increasingly discouraged about job prospects. While we maintained our call for a 25bp cut in October following the data, we await the BoC's BOS survey this morning and the CPI data next week, which could be soft enough to sway the BoC to a 50bp cut still.”
  • TD: “The BoC’s next interest rate decision is in less than two weeks, and another cut is widely expected. Some market participants are leaning towards a larger half point move after the Fed's larger cut, but September's job data will likely pare those bets back a bit. We look for another quarter-point interest rate cut on October 23rd.  “

 

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25bp cut

  • BMO: “Today's surprisingly sturdy employment picture sends a strong vote for a more modest 25 bp rate cut by the BoC at this month's decision, versus the recent growing calls for a 50 bp response. Given the inherent volatility of the Labour Force Survey, this result is not going to seal the deal by itself, but one of the strongest arguments in favour a bigger rate move was the previously steady softening in the job market.”
  • CIBC: “Although the September employment report showed an improvement in hiring, that followed a lull in the summer months, and the drop in participation is an indication that workers are becoming increasingly discouraged about job prospects. While we maintained our call for a 25bp cut in October following the data, we await the BoC's BOS survey this morning and the CPI data next week, which could be soft enough to sway the BoC to a 50bp cut still.”
  • TD: “The BoC’s next interest rate decision is in less than two weeks, and another cut is widely expected. Some market participants are leaning towards a larger half point move after the Fed's larger cut, but September's job data will likely pare those bets back a bit. We look for another quarter-point interest rate cut on October 23rd.  “

 

Keep reading...Show less