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CANADA: CAD Outperforms Most Despite Tepid Home Sales

CANADA
  • USDCAD sits at ~1.3710, a little lower on the day as it remains close to yesterday’s new recent low of 1.3689 (Aug 14 low). 
  • It’s pulled back from the post-US retail sales high of 1.3738 but generally remains in narrow ranges seen since mid-last week with the collection of on balance stronger US data. An extension towards 1.3657 (Jul 17 low) would be needed to more firmly what has previously been a bullish trend. 
  • Today’s Canadian data saw tepid existing home sales (-0.7% M/M) which meant months of inventory kept recent relative gains – the 4.2 months is the highest for a July post-pandemic and is closer to the 4.6-5.4 seen in the three years pre-pandemic.  
  • CAD lags AUD (strong jobs growth) and GBP (GDP growth confirmed at a solid pace in Q2) on the day but otherwise outperforms most G10 majors against the backdrop of a net stronger USD. 
  • Tomorrow sees CAD housing starts and mfg sales (attention on firmly on next week’s CPI) whilst US data should be more impactful including the U.Mich consumer survey. 
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