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CANADA: CIBC Estimate One Week Rail Strike Lowers Q3 GDP By 0.4pp Annualized

CANADA
  • CIBC "estimate that a one week lockout would lower annualized Q3 GDP by around 0.4%-pts, with that impact more than doubling in the case of a two-week dispute as more sectors would be forced to curtail production the longer the lockout persists.”
  • Direct effects are relatively small. A one-week shutdown “would shave only 0.1% from monthly GDP and 0.13%-points annualized from Q3 assuming rail transportation volumes rebound in September” but indirect effects are much larger. 
  • “Lacking historical precedent for a long rail strike, it's challenging to quantify what a strike that dragged on would do for the economy, but it would clearly become quite material, and have longer term impacts on Canada's reputation as a reliable source of supply.”
  • “However, it is precisely because of these broadly-based negative indirect effects that rail disputes have typically been quite short-lived historically. As more sectors of the economy are impacted, the greater the pressure becomes on negotiators and the Federal government to end the dispute.”
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