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CANADA: Immigration Spike Fuels Concerns on Housing, Jobs and Productivity

CANADA
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  • Concern over immigration surges four-fold in the past two years, with 21% Canadians seeing it as a top national issue, along with climate change, according to an Angus Reid poll. This comes amid a spike in temporary and permanent immigrants and StatsCan data showing strong population growth despite measures to slow immigration.
  • Desjardins said the non-permanent resident (NPR) share more than doubled in Q2 2024, up 7.3% from 3.5% three years ago, adding to concerns over unsustainable growth. Desjardins recommends balancing potential costs of reduced economic momentum against benefits of lower housing prices, inflation and wage gains.
  • Scotiabank noted a dip in Temporary Foreign Worker Program permits, down 3.6% in July (125K YTD) while International Mobility Program permits rose 6.3% (477K). Analysts expect a plateauing or reduced immigration targets in the upcoming November 1st announcement. However, little impact on wages is expected should the government meet its target of fewer temporary workers but potential improvements in real GDP per capita and a dip in unemployment could be the result, Scotiabank analyst said.
  • TD Economics noted a 1.2% annual drop in productivity since 2019 with construction being the biggest drag.  Unaddressed, this could mean a “continued drop in living standards, worsening wage stagnation and dangerous deterioration in public services,” TD said.
  • In its July report, BOC said the government could take longer to meet its target of reducing NPR share to 5% by 2027. Immigration minister has said they will meet targets.
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  • Concern over immigration surges four-fold in the past two years, with 21% Canadians seeing it as a top national issue, along with climate change, according to an Angus Reid poll. This comes amid a spike in temporary and permanent immigrants and StatsCan data showing strong population growth despite measures to slow immigration.
  • Desjardins said the non-permanent resident (NPR) share more than doubled in Q2 2024, up 7.3% from 3.5% three years ago, adding to concerns over unsustainable growth. Desjardins recommends balancing potential costs of reduced economic momentum against benefits of lower housing prices, inflation and wage gains.
  • Scotiabank noted a dip in Temporary Foreign Worker Program permits, down 3.6% in July (125K YTD) while International Mobility Program permits rose 6.3% (477K). Analysts expect a plateauing or reduced immigration targets in the upcoming November 1st announcement. However, little impact on wages is expected should the government meet its target of fewer temporary workers but potential improvements in real GDP per capita and a dip in unemployment could be the result, Scotiabank analyst said.
  • TD Economics noted a 1.2% annual drop in productivity since 2019 with construction being the biggest drag.  Unaddressed, this could mean a “continued drop in living standards, worsening wage stagnation and dangerous deterioration in public services,” TD said.
  • In its July report, BOC said the government could take longer to meet its target of reducing NPR share to 5% by 2027. Immigration minister has said they will meet targets.