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CANADA: Modest Changes For Near-Term BoC Pricing On Core CPI Miss

CANADA
  • 2Y GoC yields have continued to decline as the CPI report is assessed, now 4.3bp lower post-release, with the Can-US yield differential 3.9bp lower post-release for -1.2bp on the day at -75.4bps. 
  • Relatively modest moves in near-term BoC pricing: from 27bp to 28bp for Sep and cumulative cuts have lifted from fractionally under 75bps to 77bps. 
  • We think a large negative growth surprise (next week’s GDP) or a strong increase in the unemployment rate (two days after the Sep 4 decision) is needed to materially price in more than 25bp cuts over the next three meetings. 
  • USDCAD meanwhile also sees relatively modest increases, ~25 pips higher at 1.3632. It’s back unchanged on the day as CAD slips towards the bottom of the G10 pack. 
  • The FX reaction is likely limited by CAD net shorts already at historical extremes as of early last week. 
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