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CANADA: USDCAD Off Latest Lows, Still Oversold

CANADA
  • USDCAD has seen session highs of 1.3478, lifting off latest lows overnight of 1.3441 on the back of continued downward pressure in WTI futures and with the S&P e-mini fading earlier intraday gains. 
  • The low saw a step closer to support at 1.3420 (Mar 8 low), whilst resistance is seen at 1.3519 (Aug 26 high) before 1.3617 (Aug 23 high). 
  • The pair just about remains in oversold conditions, which if it’s maintained would mark its fourth day. In the past five years, it has ‘closed’ oversold in 45 times for an average duration of 3.5 days. 
  • The limited extent to which the pair has remained oversold suggests it could be hard to see a concerted push lower for the pair but there could be added ammunition with CAD net shorts still likely historically large (52% of OI as of Aug 20 with the 150pip decline since then potentially squeezing this). 
Source: Bloomberg

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