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Canadian FI Rallies With Tsys On PCE As CAD GDP Mostly In Line

CANADA
  • Monthly GDP data for April/May advance were broadly in line with expectations, driving initially limited moves in USDCAD (which have since built) whilst Canadian FI rallied in spillover from the US PCE report.
  • GoC yields are ~4bps lower across the curve to leave Can-US yield differentials little changed. That includes the 2Y differential at -69.5bp, having increased dramatically from the lower than -90bps two days after the BoC’s first cut of the cycle on Jun 5 (with the recent increase primarily driven by stronger Canadian CPI).
  • BoC-dated OIS continues to hover with 10-11bp of cuts for the Jul 24 decision.
  • USDCAD has most recently stepped lower to session lows 1.3686 but remains above yesterday’s 1.3676. Support remains at 1.3626 (Jun 25 low).
  • Canada real GDP increased 0.3% M/M in April as indicated by last month’s advance, whilst the May advance was indeed softer than some had looked for at a tepid 0.1% M/M.
  • It left growth tracking at 2.1% annualized on a 3M/3M basis or 1% Y/Y in May.

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