Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MACRO ANALYSIS
- Much has been made of the sizeable increase in the Canadian unemployment rate, which again surprised higher with its latest increase to 6.4% in June.
- It’s up 0.65pps since the end of last year alone and comes from historically low sub-5% prints in 2H22 having bottomed at 4.84% in July. It's also an increase from the 6.1% in April in the latest available data prior to the BoC cutting for the first time this cycle in June.
- Tellingly, the prime age cohort has seen a similar trend albeit with a marginally milder recent acceleration (+0.53pps since end-2023 to 5.34%).
- Also of note, Sahm rule measures show the Canadian unemployment rate rising at more than twice the pace of that in the US, with the Canadian rate far into recessionary territory in contrast to the US which is yet to breach the recessionary threshold – see right hand chart.
- This is the opposite to the fallout from the dotcom and great financial crises, when the US unemployment rate led the way higher.
- With both countries seeing a moderation from historically tight labor markets, such rules might not have the same effectiveness, but alternative labor market metrics also show more extensive Canadian rebalancing.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok