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CAPITAL GOODS: Bouygues (ENFP A3/A-[N]/NR): Medium Term Guidance Update

CAPITAL GOODS
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No credit impact expected.

  • Lumped in with a new telco package announcement, Bouygues Telecom now expects modest growth in sales and EBITDAaL in 2026 v 2023, lower than targets from its CMD in 2021. It had expected EBIDTAaL to reach €2.5bn. That would have required 8% CAGR from 2023; we take modest to mean 0-3%.
  • This comes mainly from lower ABPU in mobile as expected, plus higher energy costs.
  • Capex requirements are also lowered, with Bouygues ahead of coverage and quality targets. That allows it to maintain FCF targets.
  • Assuming 2% CAGR, the net impact is a modest uptick in leverage expectations in 2026 of about 0.2x. We think consensus was already below previous guidance in any case.
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No credit impact expected.

  • Lumped in with a new telco package announcement, Bouygues Telecom now expects modest growth in sales and EBITDAaL in 2026 v 2023, lower than targets from its CMD in 2021. It had expected EBIDTAaL to reach €2.5bn. That would have required 8% CAGR from 2023; we take modest to mean 0-3%.
  • This comes mainly from lower ABPU in mobile as expected, plus higher energy costs.
  • Capex requirements are also lowered, with Bouygues ahead of coverage and quality targets. That allows it to maintain FCF targets.
  • Assuming 2% CAGR, the net impact is a modest uptick in leverage expectations in 2026 of about 0.2x. We think consensus was already below previous guidance in any case.