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Cash Bonds Bear-Steepen, BoJ Rinban Operations Due

JGBS

In Tokyo morning trade, JGB futures are weaker (JBU4 at 143.99) but off overnight lows, -9 compared to settlement levels.

  • According to the MNI technicals team, key resistance for JGB futures remains at 145.95, the Mar 28 high. A break would signal the scope for a climb towards the bull trigger at 147.74, the mid-January high. The bounce off late May lows has called into question the sustainability of the bear trend this year, despite the contract recently trading through key support at 143.44, the Nov 1 low. This exposes 141.65, a Fibonacci projection.
  • Today, the local calendar will see the Bloomberg June Economic Survey results alongside BoJ Rinban Operations covering 1-25-year JGBs.
  • Cash US tsys are 1-2bps richer in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s sell-off.
  • The cash JGB curve has bear-steepened, with yields flat to 3bps higher. The benchmark 10-year yield is 0.2bp higher at 0.937% versus the cycle high of 1.101%.
  • The swaps curve has twist-steepened, pivoting at the 10s, with rate movements bounded by +/- 1bp. Swap spreads are mostly tighter.
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