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Caveats On Fed Outlook

US DATA
  • Key data last week showed further progression on the inflation front. Headline CPI is back to 3% Y/Y, which was below market forecasts. Following suit, some banks amended their forecasts to reflect expectations of a Federal Reserve cut this year.
  • Market pricing for a September cut is now around fully priced. However, taking a step back it’s important to note that last week’s data merely shows that monetary policy is doing its job and at 3%, there is work that remains to be done in terms of FED targets.
  • Moreover, in the face of higher interest rates, the US economy has continued to perform well. Such a backdrop, coupled with the looming US election risk, are important caveats to be mindful of in terms of both the near and longer term Fed outlooks.
  • Later today, Powell will make his final scheduled appearance ahead of the Fed black-out period at an event hosted by the Economic Club Of Washington, this will be followed by the Fed's Mary Daly speaking at the Fortune Brainstorm Tech 2024 event.
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