CBA Look For 300K Fall In Headline Employment In August

CBA writes "we have noted several times that the consensus of Australian economists consistently underestimate the recovery in employment. We think this time is different. We think the consensus estimate for an 80,000 decrease in employment in August is too optimistic. We estimate employment slumped by a massive 300,000. The decrease is driven almost entirely by NSW. As the Victorian lockdowns began later, we expect the majority of the hit to employment to show up in September. The rise in the unemployment rate is not expected to be as sharp because we estimate the participation rate eased. Hours worked, however, will collapse as during most of the August survey's reference week NSW, Victoria and Queensland were in lockdown. That said, we would caution that there is a much higher than usual degree of uncertainty over the August outcomes."