Free Trial

CBA Spending Data Signals Contraction In October Retail Sales


CBA’s household spending insights indicator fell 1% m/m in October after posting four consecutive monthly rises. It is now 2% higher than a year ago after an upwardly-revised 3.6% in September. The series has been revised due to some compositional changes. It has a high correlation with the ABS retail sales data and so October may also show a fall when it is released on November 28. CBA is forecasting a 0.6% m/m drop. The November rate hike is likely to weigh on spending going into 2024.

  • The October drop in transactions-based spending was driven by recreation, hospitality, food & beverages and household goods. But there was increased spending on utilities, transport and education. The series is seasonally adjusted but nominal.
  • Services spending fell 0.1% m/m in October after -1.3% to be up 4.6% y/y and goods fell 2% m/m after -0.7% to be up 0.5% y/y. Discretionary spending fell 3.7% m/m after 2.9% to be down 1.5% y/y, whereas essentials rose 0.3% m/m and 5.2% y/y, reflecting the higher cost of living.
  • The October CBA home buying index fell 0.7% m/m after -0.4% but rose to -8.1% y/y from -10.2%.

To read the full story



MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.