January 22, 2025 12:26 GMT
GERMANY: CDU & AfD Fall In Latest YouGov Poll, SPD Hit Highest Since Apr '23
GERMANY
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Chancellor Olaf Scholz's centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) recorded its highest support in a YouGov poll since April 2023 in a poll published 22 Jan. While still trailing the main opposition centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Scholz's party secured 19% support putting it level with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).
- YouGov: CDU/CSU: 28% (-2), AfD: 19% (-2), SPD: 19% (+1), Greens: 15% (+1), BSW: 6% (=), FDP: 4% (=), Linke: 4% (=). Fieldwork 17-20 Jan, chgs w. 10-14 Jan.
- Ahead of the 23 Feb election, focus is on party seat totals and whether the next coalition will be formed by two parties or whether it will have to include three to reach a majority - risking political instability as was seen in the 2021-24 'traffic light' coalition.
- The CDU are strong favourites to lead the next gov't. The SPD or the environmentalist Greens are seen as possible coalition allies, with CDU head Friedrich Merz having ruled out working with the AfD.
- The pro-business liberal Free Democrats (FDP) are polling 4-5%, putting them around the 5% electoral threshold. Merz's party would see the FDP as a closer political ally, but a two-party coalition between them will not hold a majority. If the FDP wins seats Merz would look to bring it in as a counterweight against the left-leaning SPD/Greens, or leave them in opposition in order to lead a potentially more stable two-party gov't.
Chart 1. Federal Election Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Average

Source: YouGov, FGW, Allensbach, Civey, Infratest dimap, Wahlkreisprognose, INSA, Forsa, GMS, Verian, MNI
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