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CEE Central Banks' Divergence Continues

EMERGING MARKETS
  • In the past few months, we have seen that Hungary and Czech Republic decided to embark into a tightening cycle to curb the inflationary pressures which have accelerated significantly since the start of the year.
  • Both the NBH and CNB, which have already raised the policy rate by three and two times, respectively, in their latest policy meetings, are expected to continue their tightening policy at their next meeting (on Sep 21 and Sep 30, respectively).
  • On the other hand, the NBP has remained quiet and decided once again to leave its policy rate on hold yesterday as the economic situation around the world continues to worsen due to the Delta variant.
  • It is interesting to see that the central banks of Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania have also been keeping their policy rate on hold in the past few months despite rising inflation.
  • It is important to note that the RSD, BGN and RON are either pegged or 'loosely pegged' to the Euro, and therefore will probably mimic the ECB moves in the medium term regarding their policy outlook.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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