CEE FX: Bounce Off Lows for Equities Prompts Solid Recovery for HUF, PLN

The partial recovery in equities post the US PMI and ISM data has led to a solid recovery across CE3 FX – which had already been displaying resilience to the deteriorating sentiment towards EM assets amid a global risk rout. EURHUF is now close to 0.2% in the red having tested the 399 handle earlier today while EURPLN gains have moderated to 0.3%. EURCZK, meanwhile, continues to outperform its regional peers, down 0.35% and near last week’s lows. A full technical update can be found below:

• EURHUF rallied last week and price was firmer at the start of the session today. Attention is on a key resistance at 398.85, the Jun 14 high. It has been pierced but a clear break would reinforce a bullish theme and signal scope for a climb towards 399.75, the Mar 12 high and a key medium-term resistance. Initial support lies at 392.85, the 50-day EMA.
• EURPLN is trading higher today and this has resulted in a break of initial resistance at 4.3044, the Jul 25 high. The break undermines a recent bearish theme and signals scope for a climb towards 4.3321, the Jul 2 high and the next important resistance. Clearance of this level would strengthen the developing bullish theme. On the downside key support is at 4.2671, the Jul 26 low.
• For EURCZK, a clear break of 25.208, the Jul 19/22 lows would continue to undermine the recent bullish theme and could expose the 50-day EMA at 25.161. Note that EURCZK briefly broke through 25.519 last week, reaching its highest level since March 2022. A close above this level would send a strong bullish signal.