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CEE FX: CZK Lags as Glapinski Presser Highlights Divergent Stances of CE3 CBs

CEE FX
  • The explicitly hawkish tone of Governor Glapinksi’s press conference, in which he stated that rate cuts will only be possible in 2026, led to an acceleration in gains for the zloty. Performance of the currency is now more in-line with that of the Hungarian forint, which had been leading regional gains since the start of the session.
  • Meanwhile, the Czech koruna continues to underperform its CE3 peers, as has been the theme since the CNB meeting last week as the diverging stances between the hawkish NBH and NBP compared to the more dovish CNB underpins koruna weakness. PLNCZK is now around 4% higher compared to the mid-June low.
  • More broadly, the consolidation of major equity indices close to their recent highs and muted price action across global markets owing to the US holiday has provided stability to EM FX, with notable gains recorded for the likes of the Brazilian real and South African rand. Focus shifts to the US NFP data tomorrow as the next key risk event.
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