CEE FX: Koruna Resilient to USD Recovery Ahead of CNB Meeting Thursday

While the recovery in the USD index from yesterday’s lows has pressured EM FX, CZK has remained resilient compared to its CE3 peers, recording gains of 0.25% against the euro ahead of the CNB rate decision on Thursday (see our preview here). EURHUF and EURPLN, meanwhile, stand and 0.3% and 0.2% higher, respectively, though both remain below yesterday’s highs with overall technical themes unchanged.

• Bullish conditions in EURHUF remain intact with the cross is trading relatively close to its latest highs. Attention therefore remains on 399.75, the Mar 12 high and a key resistance. Initial firm support is seen at 393.50, the 20-day EMA.
• EURPLN traded lower last week and again Monday, extending the reversal from the Jun 14 high. The recent move down still appears to be a correction, however, with the break of both the 20- and 50- day EMAs not undermining the bullish theme.
• EURCZK trades near the 200-DMA at 24.829, and broke through the 50-DMA earlier in the session. An extension lower could expose key support at 24.537, the Jun 7 cycle lows.