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CEE FX: More Stable Risk Backdrop Aids Moderate Recovery in CEE FX

CEE FX

Equity weakness on the back of a sell-off in tech related indices and a sharp drop in crude prices pressured EM and high beta currencies yesterday, but a recovery in the euro off Tuesday’s lows and a slightly more stable risk backdrop has offered some relief to CEE currencies so far this morning.

  • USDPLN, USDHUF and USDCZK all pierced resistances at their respective 20-day EMAs yesterday, but have since fallen back below those levels. A clear break of the averages would be needed to bolster bullish momentum.
  • Regional focus today is on the NBP rate decision (preview here), though no change to rates is expected until 2025 at the earliest. Instead, markets look to Governor Glapinski’s press conference tomorrow afternoon for any change in tone from the NBP Chief.
  • Globally, JOLTS Job Openings data could prove to be a needle mover given the Fed's acute sensitivity to labour market conditions headed into the September decision.
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