CEE FX: Zloty Leads Losses in EMEA, Koruna Relatively Resilient

While the Hungarian forint and Polish zloty had already been trending lower prior to the release of the US retail sales data, the stronger-than-expected figures and subsequent spike in the greenback have since exacerbated downside momentum, with the zloty leading losses in EMEA. Technical update below:

• EURHUF has reversed yesterday’s losses, up 0.25% on the session but still below the 50-day EMA at 392.70. A clear and sustained break below this level would undermine the bullish theme. A resumption of gains would open 398.85, the Jun 14 high.
• EURPLN trades a more substantial 0.40% in the green, placing the cross at its highest level in over a week. Today’s move higher appears to be a correction, with the 4.25 support zone still in focus. More specifically, bears will target 4.2471, which limited losses on May 28 and was tested and rejected again yesterday. Topside focus falls on the 50-EMA, which intersects at 4.2942.
• EURCZK has operated within a relatively narrow range today and the koruna has exhibited greater resilience than its regional peers. The cross sits moderately lower at typing, but still close to its recent cycle highs overall.